Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Free Andy Marte! Redux!

When last we left the Indians, on June 7, they'd just returned from Texas, they had beaten Detroit in the first game of their series, and well, it looked like any moment they could turn it around, with a weak NL West interleague schedule coming up.

The Indians have proceeded to go 7-9 over the intervening two and half weeks, dropping to 7.5 games below the Whine Sox. They have been passed in the standings by the Motor City Kitties, and now stand a half game out of the AL Central basement.

Since we last spoke, Victor Martinez and Josh Barfield have been added to the DL. The Beaded One is now the Beaded One of Buffalo. Yamid Haad has come and gone and been replaced by Sal Fasano at backup catcher. Jorge Velandia is now officially the emergency middle infielder.

It's time to trade CC. It appears that there will be no appreciable change in the performance either by the offense or the bullpen, the two major reasons that this team is losing games. Our two best historical offensive performers are out, with no definitive timetable for return. Blow it up. Get help. The two compensatory draft picks we would get for keeping CC are likely 4 or 5 years out from helping the team, at best. Start the bidding war now.



Meanwhile, Casey Blake continues to look like a reasonable approximation of a major leaguer, at least with the bat, as he has improved his line to .269/.342/.437 with 7 home runs and 45 RBI. He has increased his OPS+ to 107, proving that he is at least swinging the bat slightly better than the average third-baseman.

Fun facts about Casey Blake:
  • At home, he has an OPS+ of 49 and away his OPS+ is 172. All 7 of his home runs have been hit on the road
  • In June, his OPS+ is 159.
  • With RISP, his line is an incredible .422/.500/.781
  • With nobody on, his line is .216/.286/.336
  • Career line: .263/.333/.444 (In other words, he had to get unbelievably hot in June to reach his career line, which indicates just how much he sucked in April and May)
  • Casey's career line with RISP (including this year): .235/.319/.383 . There's a reason that up until this year, the folks at Let's Go Tribe have called him LOBlake.
  • Casey Blake has made 9 chargeable errors at 3B and 1 at 1B in 596 total innings, or 1 error every 66 innings

So, what to make of Casey Blake's magical year with runners on base? My conclusion is that it's highly likely that it's completely unsustainable and that the odds are that he will regress to somewhere closer to his career line. His BABIP with RISP this year is .451. That's extremely lucky. His career BABIP is .300.

What to make of Casey Blake's home/road split? It's more extreme than years past, but over the course of his career, he has hit significantly better on the road than at home:

  • Home: .246 / .320 / .392, 42 home runs
  • Away: .279 / .345 / .493, 72 home runs

Given how many doubles he's had high up on the left field wall this year, I suspect that the dimensions of Progressive Field actually deflate Blake's homer totals. The 19-foot wall turns balls that would be home runs elsewhere into doubles at his home park.

While Casey Blake is on his hot streak, Andy Marte continues to play dominoes on the bench. Between June 6 and last night, this is what Andy Marte has done:

  • June 7 - started at 3B. Went 0-3. Was lifted in the 9th for a pinch-hitter.
  • June 11 - Came into the game in the 9th as a defensive substitute. Did not bat
  • June 12- Came into the game in the 8th as a defensive substitute. Batted once. Was hit by a pitch
  • June 18 - Pinch-hit in the 9th inning. Hit into a double play
  • June 21 - Pinch-hit in the 10th inning. Struck out
  • June 24 - Started at 3B. Went 0-2 with two strikeouts. Was lifted in the 8th for a pinch-hitter

Since June 7, Andy Marte has had 8 plate appearances and is 0 for 7 with a hit by pitch, with a 17-day stretch between starts.

Andy Marte's season line: .140 / .189 / .160, with 0 home runs and 0 RBI. He has made 1 error in 137 innings at third base.

I'm not going to lie to you - Marte's line this year is not very good. But, this represents 50 official plate appearances. He's started 15 of the Indians 77 games, and he finished only 7 of those - in 8 games he was lifted for a pinch-hitter.

Andy Marte's history has been that at every level he has played, he has started slowly and once he has adjusted he has been effective. When he got hurt last year, Casey Blake fell into one of his hot streaks and Andy Marte got stuck in Buffalo, repeating AAA for the third year in a row. Andy Marte has had no chance to adjust to the major leagues for any extended period of time. A late season callup in 06 and 57 at bats in 20 games last year certainly don't count as an adjustment period.

We need to find out whether Andy Marte can help this team in the future. We don't want to get rid of him cheap only to have him blossom elsewhere (a la Brandon Phillips). Right now, because of Eric Wedge's pigheaded usage of Marte, his trade value is probably at an all time low, but the kid's only 24!

Free Andy Marte! This team's not going anywhere, not with this bullpen and all of these injuries. Lots of teams could use a super utility guy like Casey Blake. He hits better on the road anyway, and his extreme luck with RISP is due to start fizzling any day.

Let the fire sale begin. Casey - see ya! CC - hasta la vista, and enjoy counting your money! Looch - time to enjoy someone else's bench.

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