Monday, June 30, 2008

Sell Sell Sell

This team is going nowhere. They just lost 2 of 3 at home to the Cincinnati Freakin' Reds.

CCya later!

Casey - let's see how well your magic season with RISP and groundball booting translate to a team in contention.

Looch - too bad you're old and can't hit and that we'll have to eat your contract in order to get even a halfway decent organization player for you.

Free Byrd!

These are the players not in the Indians' plans for the future that will likely be hitting the highway soon.

C'mon, Mark! The sooner we start selling, the higher the return. Get on it!

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Last Place

Last night, the Indians
  • Lost to Barry Zito, who was charged with 1 run (but really, he left a guy on base who was let in by a reliever, so, really, despite what the box score says, we didn't score on Barry Zito)
  • Were passed by the KC Royals in the standings, and are now in last place in the AL Central
  • Started Jorge Velandia
  • Pinch-hit for Jorge Velandia with Andy Marte
  • Afterwards, moved Casey Blake to shortstop for an inning.

Really. I'm not making any of this up.

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Free Andy Marte! Redux!

When last we left the Indians, on June 7, they'd just returned from Texas, they had beaten Detroit in the first game of their series, and well, it looked like any moment they could turn it around, with a weak NL West interleague schedule coming up.

The Indians have proceeded to go 7-9 over the intervening two and half weeks, dropping to 7.5 games below the Whine Sox. They have been passed in the standings by the Motor City Kitties, and now stand a half game out of the AL Central basement.

Since we last spoke, Victor Martinez and Josh Barfield have been added to the DL. The Beaded One is now the Beaded One of Buffalo. Yamid Haad has come and gone and been replaced by Sal Fasano at backup catcher. Jorge Velandia is now officially the emergency middle infielder.

It's time to trade CC. It appears that there will be no appreciable change in the performance either by the offense or the bullpen, the two major reasons that this team is losing games. Our two best historical offensive performers are out, with no definitive timetable for return. Blow it up. Get help. The two compensatory draft picks we would get for keeping CC are likely 4 or 5 years out from helping the team, at best. Start the bidding war now.



Meanwhile, Casey Blake continues to look like a reasonable approximation of a major leaguer, at least with the bat, as he has improved his line to .269/.342/.437 with 7 home runs and 45 RBI. He has increased his OPS+ to 107, proving that he is at least swinging the bat slightly better than the average third-baseman.

Fun facts about Casey Blake:
  • At home, he has an OPS+ of 49 and away his OPS+ is 172. All 7 of his home runs have been hit on the road
  • In June, his OPS+ is 159.
  • With RISP, his line is an incredible .422/.500/.781
  • With nobody on, his line is .216/.286/.336
  • Career line: .263/.333/.444 (In other words, he had to get unbelievably hot in June to reach his career line, which indicates just how much he sucked in April and May)
  • Casey's career line with RISP (including this year): .235/.319/.383 . There's a reason that up until this year, the folks at Let's Go Tribe have called him LOBlake.
  • Casey Blake has made 9 chargeable errors at 3B and 1 at 1B in 596 total innings, or 1 error every 66 innings

So, what to make of Casey Blake's magical year with runners on base? My conclusion is that it's highly likely that it's completely unsustainable and that the odds are that he will regress to somewhere closer to his career line. His BABIP with RISP this year is .451. That's extremely lucky. His career BABIP is .300.

What to make of Casey Blake's home/road split? It's more extreme than years past, but over the course of his career, he has hit significantly better on the road than at home:

  • Home: .246 / .320 / .392, 42 home runs
  • Away: .279 / .345 / .493, 72 home runs

Given how many doubles he's had high up on the left field wall this year, I suspect that the dimensions of Progressive Field actually deflate Blake's homer totals. The 19-foot wall turns balls that would be home runs elsewhere into doubles at his home park.

While Casey Blake is on his hot streak, Andy Marte continues to play dominoes on the bench. Between June 6 and last night, this is what Andy Marte has done:

  • June 7 - started at 3B. Went 0-3. Was lifted in the 9th for a pinch-hitter.
  • June 11 - Came into the game in the 9th as a defensive substitute. Did not bat
  • June 12- Came into the game in the 8th as a defensive substitute. Batted once. Was hit by a pitch
  • June 18 - Pinch-hit in the 9th inning. Hit into a double play
  • June 21 - Pinch-hit in the 10th inning. Struck out
  • June 24 - Started at 3B. Went 0-2 with two strikeouts. Was lifted in the 8th for a pinch-hitter

Since June 7, Andy Marte has had 8 plate appearances and is 0 for 7 with a hit by pitch, with a 17-day stretch between starts.

Andy Marte's season line: .140 / .189 / .160, with 0 home runs and 0 RBI. He has made 1 error in 137 innings at third base.

I'm not going to lie to you - Marte's line this year is not very good. But, this represents 50 official plate appearances. He's started 15 of the Indians 77 games, and he finished only 7 of those - in 8 games he was lifted for a pinch-hitter.

Andy Marte's history has been that at every level he has played, he has started slowly and once he has adjusted he has been effective. When he got hurt last year, Casey Blake fell into one of his hot streaks and Andy Marte got stuck in Buffalo, repeating AAA for the third year in a row. Andy Marte has had no chance to adjust to the major leagues for any extended period of time. A late season callup in 06 and 57 at bats in 20 games last year certainly don't count as an adjustment period.

We need to find out whether Andy Marte can help this team in the future. We don't want to get rid of him cheap only to have him blossom elsewhere (a la Brandon Phillips). Right now, because of Eric Wedge's pigheaded usage of Marte, his trade value is probably at an all time low, but the kid's only 24!

Free Andy Marte! This team's not going anywhere, not with this bullpen and all of these injuries. Lots of teams could use a super utility guy like Casey Blake. He hits better on the road anyway, and his extreme luck with RISP is due to start fizzling any day.

Let the fire sale begin. Casey - see ya! CC - hasta la vista, and enjoy counting your money! Looch - time to enjoy someone else's bench.

Monday, June 16, 2008

I'm Alive

"I'm not dead yet! I feel happy! I feel happy" - Old Man - Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

Hey, crimestoppers, I'm back. I spent last week at a conference. I will be posting my thoughts on last week's episodes of As the Tribe Turns, as well as some comments on Rick from Waitingfornextyear's question about why Andy Marte rather then Casey Blake as soon as I get caught up from missing last week.

Saturday, June 7, 2008

The Wind

"The wind, the wind brings me cards from Argentina
It brings scarves from finer ladies
And the scent of the gardenias
Won't sleep or rest or sit itself beside me
If I run out, there's no one that could hide me
And I know that I'll regret it
But I think I'm gonna let it in"

"The Wind" by Nathan, from Key Principles


The Indians have been looking for something to "take fear from bats", and it seems like they may have found it in Arlington this week. The weather was hot, the wind was blowing out, and the Indians got to feast on weak Rangers' pitching. Alas, the wind was also blowing out for the Rangers as well, as the ulitmate result was a split, with the Tribe scoring 39 runs and the Rangers scoring 39 runs. The highlights:

  • Monday: Tribe 13 - Rangers 9: Casey Blake, 2 HR, 7 RBI. Laffey got pummeled. Westbrook put on DL. Nobody ready to start next game, since Sowers started earlier in the week.
  • Tuesday: Tribe 7 - Rangers 12: Tribe starts Tom Mastny due to Westbrook's sudden appearance on DL. Mastny gets plowed under like last year's corn stalks. Bullpen really didn't recover for the rest of the series.
  • Wednesday: Tribe 15 - Rangers 9: Everybody hits! Ben Francisco gets 5 all by himself! Garko gets 4, with 6 RBI. Cliff Lee leaves after getting hosed by the home plate umpire in the 5th inning and allowing the go ahead runs and then paces the dugout hurling curses towards home plate as the Indians break the game open with 5 in the top of the 6th to give him the victory.
  • Thursday: Tribe 4 - Ranger 9: With the chance to capture the series and staked to a 4-0 lead, CC Sabathia falls prey to his "inning of crap" (thanks, Steve Buffum), surrenders the lead and then the Senor Slow implodes, putting the game out of reach. Kevin Millwood, after a bad start, pitches lights out into the 7th to get the win for the Rangers.

Other notes:

  • Milton Bradley continues to be a showboating douchebag. At least CC hit him with a pitch on Thursday, though he came around to score in the "inning of crap."
  • Jake Westbrook is on the DL with "right elbow soreness." He went to see Dr. Yocum and the results will be released this weekend. Uh-oh. Still think the Indians should trade some of their pitching depth?
  • The Westbrook injury forced the Tribe to shuffle their bullpen. Tom Mastny and Jensen Lewis were up. Then they were down and Rick Bauer and Brian Slocum came up. Bauer closed out the 15-9 game, giving up 3 runs in the 9th.
  • The draft was this week. The Indians took Lonnie Chisenhall, a middle infield type, allegedly with a plus bat, who fell from grace at U South Carolina after being involved in an incident regarding the theft of some electronic equipment.

Last night, the Indians beat the Tigers 4-2, with Paul Byrd getting his 100th career win. The Tribe is now 6.5 games behind the Whine Sox, who have won their last 4.

Andy Marte played Tuesday. So did Blake. Andy went 1 for 3 with a run scored. He was pinch-hit for late in the game by Dellucci, who flied out weakly to left. This is particularly noteworthy because Wedge got outmanaged. Texas pitcher Jamey Wright was struggling. The bases were loaded and the Rangers needed more time to get a pitcher ready. Instead of sending up Marte against a struggling pitcher, Wedge wastes time getting a pinch-hitter up (lefty Dellucci vs righty Wright) allowing the Rangers time to get lefty Eddie Guardado into the game, who proceeded to drink David Dellucci's milkshake.

When we last left Casey Blake's stats, he had an OPS+ of 52. Now that he's been on the road to feast on weak KC and Texas pitching, he has increased his OPS+ to 94, which now actually approximates the OPS+ of an actual major league player, albeit still a below average one. His batting line is now .236/.315/.407. So, don't expect the Casey Blake Experience to end any time soon.

When Andy Marte plays, the Indians are 11-6, with a two game losing streak. Blake also played in both games. When both Marte and Blake play, the Indians are 6-5.

Sunday, June 1, 2008

At Least There Was Probably Some Really Good Barbecue

When we last left our intrepid Tribesmen, they were heading to Kansas City for some baseball and some barbecue.

At least, we can only hope they all got some good barbecue, because the baseball was pretty sad. The quick recap:

  • Friday - Andy Marte and Casey Blake both play. Andy Marte extends his hitting streak to 4 games. Cliff Lee gets knocked around a little bit but get saved by 2 homers by Sizemore and 1 by Blake and the Indians win, 5-4.
  • Saturday - Andy Marte does not play. Casey Blake does. CC Sabathia has, as Steve Buffum calls it, The Inning of Crap. The Indians fail to get their offense going against Kyle Davies, who has just been called up from AAA. Indians lose 4-2. Kansas City losing streak ends at 12 games,
  • Sunday - Age and Treachery starts for the Tribe against Brian Bannister. Youth and Inexperience hit Age and Treachery pretty hard, while Bannister shuts the Tribe down. Final score - 6-1 Kansas City. KC win streak now at 2, and the Indians have lost another series, their 5th in a row. Andy Marte plays, goes hitless ending his hit streak at 4 games. Casey Blake does not play.
More fun facts:
  • When Andy Marte plays: Indians are 11-5. When Blake and Marte both play - 6-4.
  • Pronk is now on the DL with a shoulder injury which he's apparently been battling since very early in the season. Maybe he'll get sent out on rehab and get to devour some Eastern League pitching for a few days and get back in a groove.
  • The Indians' silence about injuries to both Pronk and He Who Shall Not Be Named is extremely troubling - it's as if they are trying to become the New England Patriots or the Denver Broncos of the Major Leagues (that's not a good thing - both of these teams are notorious for being tight-lipped about player injuries). This really makes me wonder what we're not hearing about Victor Martinez - his lack of power continues to be puzzling, and I cannot help but think that there is some physical reason why his power has vanished.
  • Welcome back, Shin Soo Choo. When Hafner got shut down, Choo got brought up.

Onwards to Texas, having lost 2 in a row and 12 of our last 15 (to the Reds, Whine Sox, Rangers and Royals). This is not the way a contending team performs. Aaron Laffey tries to right the ship against Vicente Padilla tomorrow night.