ALCS Preview - Indians vs. Red Sox

It's even. Flip a coin.

Both teams tied for the best record in baseball. Both teams have great starting pitching and solid bullpens. Both teams can score runs and have solid hitters 1 through 9. The differences between these two teams statistically are not that significant.

The only significant advantage that Boston has over the Indians is home field advantage, and they only have that because we threw Sowers and Lee at them to use as pinatas during the season.

How can you not love a Game 1 matchup of Sabathia vs. Beckett? Or a Game 2 matchup of Carmona vs. Schilling?

This should be tense, exciting baseball, and I will be very surprised if either team is able to wrap this up before a Game 7.

At this point, most sportswriters would toss out a bunch of cliches about the team that executes the best will probably win, or give the edge to Boston because they're at home, and will probably be throwing their ace 3 times. Maybe they'd offer a position by position breakdown and assign an edge based on whether Garko or Youkilis is the better first baseman. That's all well and good, but it really doesn't tell us that much.

My take -- the teams are so evenly matched that the team with the most breaks is going to win. The team that gets a surpise homer to wrap around the Pesky Pole. The team whose pitcher gets a ball to stay in Fenway Park because it hits high off the Green Monster and then manages to strand the runner at second. The team whose pitchers get the umpires who call the strike zone more favorable to the way they pitch. The team that bloops one in between three fielders in short right center field. More importantly, there is no way to tell who that team is going to be going in.

The baseball gods are notoriously fickle. If there were a greater disparity of talent, it would be easy to give one team an edge based on talent alone. There isn't. I can't guess which team will be getting those lucky breaks. I hope it's the Indians, but I think that it will make for some of the most compelling baseball we've seen in the postseason since 2004.